Topic: Predictability

Friday, May 03, 2024 from 7-9h UTC

Organizers and Conveners: Monika Krysta (BoM, Australia), Takeshi Enomoto (Kyoto U., Japan), Tobias Necker (U. Vienna, Austria)

Invited Speaker: Prof. Dr. George Craig (HErZ / LMU Munich, Germany)

Join us for a compelling session on Predictability, focusing on its limits and the potential for enhancement through improved Data Assimilation. This session targets the core questions: How far can we stretch the boundaries of Predictability? And in what ways can refining data assimilation techniques contribute to this expansion? The session will navigate the intricate interplay between the inherent limits of forecasting and the advances in data assimilation, crucial for example in meteorology, oceanography, or seismology. We invite abstracts for a vibrant exchange of ideas aimed at deepening our understanding of Error Growth and Predictability in environmental and chaotic systems.

Program/Abstracts (PDF download)

Recorded Talks (Link to RIKEN website / YouTube)

Yopad (Questions asked during the event)


  • The Limits of Predictability
    George Craig, Tobias Selz
    (45min keynote + 10min q&a)

  • Impacts of Mountain Topography and Background Flow Conditions on the Predictability of Thermally Induced Thunderstorms and the Associated Error Growth
    Pin-Ying Wu, Tetsuya Takemi
    (15min talk + 3min q&a)
  • Improved subseasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon rainfall using data-driven forecasts of oscillatory modes
    Eviatar Bach, V. Krishnamurthy, Safa Mote, Jagadish Shukla, A. Surjalal Sharma, Eugenia Kalnay, Michael Ghil
    (15min talk + 3min q&a)
  • Ensemble sensitivity analysis for high-impact weather
    Takeshi Enomoto, Saori Nakashita
    (15min talk + 3min q&a)

Time Zones:
09 UTC
Europe:            08 – 10 am BST (London)      | 09 – 11 am CEST (Berlin)
Asia/Australia: 03 – 05 pm CST (Shanghai)   | 04 – 06 pm JST (Tokyo)      | 05 – 07 pm AEDT (Sydney)
Americas:        00 – 02 am PDT (San Fran.)  | 01 – 03 am MDT (Denver)   | 03 – 05 am EDT (New York)

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